On one hand, the time has come to replace them. On the other, the Air
Force is strapped for cash, victim to a perfect storm of bureaucratic
bloat, several rounds of defense cuts, and a fighter fleet exhausted by
war and age.
The purpose of our strategic deterrent is simple: prevent nuclear
weapons from ever being used. And the current Minuteman III
inter-continental ballistic missile system, long in the tooth at 40
years old, is the foundation of that strategy.
The Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile was first
deployed during the Nixon Administration. Though the missiles have been
swapped out with a new skin and innards, the Air Force still uses the
same ancient command and control infrastructure.
That technology, which the USAF uses to control and monitor the missiles, is crumbling:
The question staring down a cash-crunched Air Force is one of priorities.
With budgetary and political pressures closing in, some elected
officials (and no doubt some military leaders) may be singing the
siren’s song of abandoning the nuclear triad for a diad. Drop the
missiles (some say), and leave deterrence for the submarines and
bombers.
If the triad stays, as it should, the Air Force faces another tough choice.
The Minuteman fleet is on its last legs. A new system presents
challenges that were foreign during the Cold War. Digging new,
survivable underground bunkers could run afoot of a mountain of
environmental regulations written after the Minuteman IIIs first went on
alert. If the ICBMs went mobile, on roads or railways like the Russians
or Chinese are wont to do, people near travel routes could create
challenging political pressures.
North Korea and Iran have both cracked the technology needed to field
an alert force of long-range missiles, and are at varying stages of
putting warheads on their delivery systems. Further, with Russia
and China fielding robust, modernized triads of new missiles, subs, and
bombers — and the United States’ deterrent serving as the West’s last
nuclear triad (France has a diad, Britain is down to just a submarine
deterrent), there’s little doubt U.S. military leaders are uncomfortable with the potential imbalance in the world’s strategic arsenals.
If your mission is to prevent nuclear weapons from ever being used – and ours is precisely that — imbalance is the enemy.
As former defense secretary Robert Gates said, the nuclear genie is
out of the bottle. Our record in keeping the nuclear club exclusive has
been terrible since the end of the Cold War (Iran, Pakistan, North
Korea), despite historic reductions to our own force.
If we’re serious about ensuring nuclear weapons are never used in
anger, we’re going to have to make some tough — and long-overdue —
choices that keep our record of peaceful coexistence with other nuclear
powers intact.
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