What Is Next For Cuba If Chavez Dies

As Hugo Chavez Fights For His Life, Cuba Fears For Its Future

Venezuela is not the only Latin American nation that is monitoring every moment of president Hugo Chavez's illness. His ally Cuba has relied on him for economic help, and that could soon come to an end.

Away from the constitutional wrangles and impassioned crowds of Caracas, the future of Venezuela after Hugo Chavez is being plotted this weekend in an elegant pre-revolutionary mansion in Havana's old playboy quarter.

The firebrand Venezuelan president is fighting for his life in a nearby hospital, stricken by severe respiratory problems and a lung infection after his latest round of surgery for cancer.

His illness left him unable to be sworn in for his fourth term as president last Thursday, having won a close-fought election in October.

But for his Cuban hosts, much more is at risk than simply the loss of a fellow left-wing Latin American radical who has long venerated Fidel Castro. His death would also put at risk the remarkable oil-fuelled largesse that has allowed Cuba to cling to its experiment in tropical communism.

Thanks to the close personal relationship between Mr Chavez and Mr Castro, energy-rich Venezuela supplies more than 100,000 barrels of dirt-cheap oil a day to Cuba - an estimated 50 per cent of the island's petroleum needs.
Venezuela also hires tens of thousands of Cuban doctors and teachers to work in its barrio slums, propping up the Cuban economy to the tune of some $6 billion a year in total. Without that subsidy, Havana would have long ago been forced to introduce market reforms to its communist regime.
Nothing has been heard or seen of Mr Chavez for more than a month and few expect him to recover - if indeed he is still alive. So it is little wonder that Cuba is desperate to exercise maximum control over his passing - and in particular manoeuvre a handover of power to Nicolas Maduro, his vice-president.
Mr Maduro, who arrived back in Havana on Friday night for fresh talks at the government-owned "protocol villa", shares Mr Chavez's absolute loyalty to Cuba. But there are others within the Venezuelan elite who are less convinced of the merits of subsidising Cuba with an economic lifeline at a time when inflation and debt are soaring in Venezuela itself, despite the country's oil wealth.

The Death Of Hugo Chavez Will Rock The Region

The likelihood that Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is close to death will pitch rivals against one another in a battle for power and oil riches, and trigger political shock waves across the region. 

 

The orchestra played and loyal lawmakers erupted in adulatory applause as Hugo Chavez invoked Fidel Castro and Jesus Christ as his revolutionary role models.

His right hand raised, the fiery Venezuelan leader echoed the famous call to arms of his Cuban mentor. "Fatherland, socialism or death," he proclaimed, then added with a typical flourish: "I swear by Christ, the greatest socialist in history." That was six years ago as "El Commandante" was sworn in for his third term as president and blew kisses to rose petal-tossing crowds when he returned in an open-topped car to his palace to watch a military parade.

On Thursday, the ideologue - who has used his country's oil riches to bankroll left-wing bed-fellows across Latin America, forged a cosy alliance with Iran and assailed the US from its back yard - is due to be celebrating his next inauguration.

But there will be no joyous scenes. For this weekend, he is lying close to death in a Cuban hospital bed, quite possibly being kept alive on a ventilator, suffering from respiratory problems and a severe lung infection after his fourth round of surgery in 18 months for an undisclosed type of pelvic cancer.

His illness has already sparked a constitutional crisis in Venezuela, where he won a hotly-contested election in October but has not yet started a new term. His death would send shock waves across the region and could endanger the survival of Cuba's communist regime which is dependent on his largesse for cheap oil.

And despite their protestations of socialist solidarity, his senior lieutenants have already begun a power struggle to replace the 58-year-old former paratroop commander who has ruled the country as a one-man show since 1998.
With the president's demise, several factions will be vying for control of the country's political future and oil wealth -- the diehard ideologues known as Chavistas; his former comrades in the powerful armed forces; the rich and powerful Chavez clan, led by his older brother Adan; and the new breed of politically-connected tycoons who have enriched themselves hugely even as its leader pursued his "21st century socialism".
On Friday night, Nicolas Maduro, the country's vice-president and Mr Chavez's anointed successor, gave the clearest indication that the inauguration might not take place on Thursday, claiming that Mr Chavez could instead be sworn in by his Supreme Court appointees, at a later date and unspecified location - if still alive.
That stance will infuriate opposition leaders who insist that the constitution requires Mr Chavez to take the oath on Jan 10 or for new elections to be called within 30 days. But their view is unlikely to win the day in a country where the ruling party dominates all branches of government.

Venezuela Is Now More Dangerous Than Afghanistan

venezuela, the most violent country in South America, recorded a new high of 21,692 murders this year along with a surge in kidnappings, prison riots and random shootings.

 

The number of victims was up by 12 per cent from last year when there were 19,336 deaths, the Venezuelan Violence Observatory said in its annual report.

High profile killings included that of a three year-old child, Edgar Torres, who was fired on 10 times while he was asleep in bed, after a gunman had come in to kill a teenage relative.

In August more than 20 people were killed in a battle between two heavily armed groups inside the Yare I prison. More than 300 prisoners died in Venezuelan jails in the first half of the year.

The Mexican ambassador Carlos Pujalte and his wife were seized from their car in a wealthy area of Caracas and held for several hours before being released alive in a slum in January.

Unlike other Latin American countries Venezuela is not involved in a drug war or on-going battle with guerrillas.

Venezuela: arrival of the first batch of Chinese aircraft Shaanxi Y-8

The first batch of military transport aircraft Shaanxi Y-8 Chinese manufacturing arrived in Venezuela, said the president of the Latin American Hugo Chavez quoted Friday by the local media.

"They crossed Africa and Brazil to land in Libertador air base in Maracay (north)," reported the Venezuelan leader.

Shaanxi Y-8 is an adaptation of the Antonov An-12, manufactured in the Soviet Union. Caracas and Beijing signed the contract for the purchase of eight of these devices in early 2011.

According to the Venezuelan Minister of Communications and Information Ernesto Villegas, aircraft purchased by Caracas are not part of the offensive arsenal and will be used to transport passengers and cargo within the country, including the civilian purposes.

Venezuela serious about producing drones

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is pursuing plans to develop a home-grown defense industry topped by a drone built reportedly with Chinese, Iranian and Russian help.

Drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles and associated systems have won over Venezuela's military procurers who see the UAVs as a conveniently cheaper supplement -- if not yet an alternative -- to expensive combat aircraft.

Chavez has been hinting at a drone development program since early this year even as he was preoccupied with treatment to cure him of an unspecified cancer and his bid toward re-election.

Earlier in October Chavez won 54 percent of the national vote, calling it a "perfect victory."

Since defeating opposition leader Henrique Capriles, Chavez has redoubled efforts to inject new life into a fledgling defense industry. The drone project is part of that effort.

Chavez announced after a meeting with military and defense officials that Venezuela has made its first drone in partnership with China, Iran and Russia and hopes to start exporting quantities of the craft.

"It is one of the three planes that we have manufactured here, and we are continuing to make them ... not just for military use, (as) much of its equipment is for civilian use," Chavez said.

Argentina, Venezuela to build trainer jet

Argentina and Venezuela will collaborate to build a trainer jet for deployment in member countries of the Union of South American States, officials said.

Unasur became operational in 2011 after more than two years of preparations and aims to become a defense and economic pact to the exclusion of North American states Canada and the United States.

Loosely modeled on the European Union, Unasur also aims to replace other regional organizations including Mercosur and the Organization of American States, which has headquarters in Washington.

Plans for extensive multi-faceted cooperation between the 12 member states have snagged on differences over existing regional trade organizations Mercosur and the Andean Community of Nations.

Unasur has a combined population of more than 396 million in Central and South America.

Even after the statement over the planned joint trainer jet project it was unclear if regional aviation giant Embraer of Brazil would play any role in the making of the plane.

Defense analysts said current plans focused on Argentina drawing state funding from Venezuela as part of its strategy to revive its defense industry.

Chavez Warns London Against Assaulting Ecuadorian Embassy

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened London with radical measures in case British authorities attempt to break into the Embassy of Ecuador to arrest WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
Assange has been holed up in Ecuador's embassy in London for two months as he fights extradition to Sweden on sex crime charges, which he denies. Last Thursday Assange was granted asylum in Ecuador but he still faces arrest the minute he steps out of the embassy building.
“If Britain decides to violate the sovereignty of Ecuador, our response will be radical. We advise the British government to think well over this since the epoch, when empires did whatever they wanted to, is long over,” Chavez told a national television.

Venezuela Plans For A Million Strong 'Guerrilla Army' against US invasion

Venezuela is training a "guerrilla army" aiming to be a million strong by 2013 to fight off a possible US invasion, an opposition MP has said. 

"Plan Sucre" – apparently crafted with input from close ally and fellow US foe Cuba – covers the legal, logistical and other angles necessary to "transform a professional army into a guerrilla army," Representative Maria Corina Machado told El Universal newspaper.

The former presidential candidate said she had obtained a copy of the plan, printed by an institution affiliated with the national army.

Iran A Worry Via Latin America

Ever since Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad struck a deal with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez for weekly air service between the nations' distant capitals, American officials have worried that Iranian-backed terrorists could reach to the rim of Latin America, pick up fake Venezuelan passports and sneak into the United States.

Now, with growing talk of a pre-emptive attack by Israel to slow Iran's suspected nuclear-weapons program, Iran has threatened that it would retaliate across the globe. And Iran's easy access to the Western Hemisphere has U.S. officials particularly concerned.

The commercial service between Tehran and Caracas by Iran Air and Conviasa Air Venezuela, including a stop in Damascus, Syria, is so secretive that there's confusion among intelligence agencies about whether the flights are continuing. Israeli experts believe they are; U.S. officials aren't so sure.

Cocaine Is Now Flowing Unchecked Through Venezuela

    Radar data collected by the United States government shows what are believed to be illicit drug flights, mostly between Venezuela and Central America. Country names have been added. Joint Interagency Task Force South 

The Venezuelan government has trumpeted one major blow after another against drug traffickers, showing off barrels of liquid cocaine seized, drug planes recovered, cocaine labs raided and airstrips destroyed.

But a visit this month to a remote region of Venezuela’s vast western plains, which a Colombian guerrilla group has turned into one of the world’s busiest transit hubs for the movement of cocaine to the United States, has shown that the government’s triumphant claims are vastly overstated.

Deep in the broad savanna, one remote airstrip the government said it had disabled in a recent army raid appeared to be back in business. The remains of two small aircraft set on fire by the army had been cleared away. Traffickers working with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, which operates with surprising latitude on this side of the border, appeared to have reclaimed the strip to continue their secret drug flights shuttling Colombian cocaine toward users in the United States.

There were no signs that soldiers had blasted holes in the runway or taken other steps to prevent it from being used again.

Venezuela’s Chavez Eyes Russian Su-35 Fighters

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Thursday he is interested in buying Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker-E multirole fighter jets from Russia to enhance his country’s defense capabilities.
“I have already sent a statement to the government of Russia that we are ready to consider buying in the next few years Su-35 fighters to modernize and enhance our defense powers,” Venezuela’s national radio quoted Chavez as saying.
The president said that the issues of security, defense and the development of the country should be the priority for the government of Venezuela within the frames of the national independence provision.
“This independence, the well protected and guaranteed one, will give us a possibility to build new Venezuela, new Fatherland and to reach new horizons,” he added.

The navy of Venezuela wants to rehabilitate its kind Lupo frigates with the help of China

Venezuelan Navy is coordinating with the Chinese shipbuilding industry the necessary studies for the rehabilitation of such Lupo frigates, said its commander, Admiral Alfredo Diego Molero Bellavia.

Admiral Molero said the six frigates suffered for over 7 years, the work of restoration and modernization, including unionized workers to shipyards Astilleros Nacionales CA, Puerto Cabello.

"We were victims of a sort of boycott of technology from the North American empire (...) and this has led to considerable delay in the work," said Molero, referring to the ban by the United States in 2006 to purchase equipment and technology U.S. military.

In 1975, Venezuela had asked the Italian shipyard Cantieri Navali Riuniti SpA., To build six frigates Lupo, who were delivered between 1980 and 1982: Mariscal Sucre, Almirante Brión, General Urdaneta, General Soublette, General Almirante García Salom and .

The Mariscal Sucre and the Almirante Brión were modernized between 1998 and 2002 by Ingalls Shipbuilding shipyard in Pascagoula, Mississippi. The contract provided for technology transfer and personnel training for the modernization of Venezuelan frigates 4 remaining in Venezuela.

In 2004, the frigate General Urdaneta, General Salom and Almirante García entered the Dianca sites, where they are always, without the work has been completed.

Iran Gets An F-16

 Iran has apparently received an American F-16 fighter from Venezuela. The mercurial and anti-American president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has, for the last six years, been threatening to sell some of his F-16s to Iran. Finally sending one to Iran was apparently an effort to help Iran prepare its defenses against an air raid by Israeli F-16Is. This Venezuelan gesture is not likely to help much as the Venezuelan F-16s are much older models while the current Israeli F-16s are the most modern model available.
The Venezuelan F-16s were received in 1983 and 1984. They are F-16A/B Block 15. F-16s currently in service with the US Air Force are F-16C/D Block 50s, with the even more advanced F-16E/F Block 60 being built for the UAE. The Venezuelan F-16s in question are over 25 years old. For the F-16, that is very old indeed. These aircraft are not equipped with the latest radars, air-to-air missiles, or jammers. And, in the 13 years since Chavez took power, they have not been getting much in the way of logistics thanks to the freeze in relations with the United States. Upsetting the country which makes the spare parts for your combat aircraft is not a good idea.
The Israeli F-16I is a 24 ton, two seat fighter-bomber, and is probably the most capable F-16 model in service. It's basically a modified version of the F-16C/D Block 50/52, equipped with a more advanced radar (the APG-68(X)) and the ability to carry Israeli weapons like the Python 4 air-to-air missile and the Popeye 2 air-to-surface missile. Costing $45 million each, the F-16I has an excellent navigation system, which allows it to fly on the deck (a hundred meters above the ground), without working the pilot to death. The aircraft can do this at night or in any weather. The F-16I can carry enough fuel to hit targets 1,600 kilometers away (meaning Iran is within range). The aircraft uses the latest short and long range air-to-air missiles, as well as smart bombs. Electronic countermeasures are carried, as is a powerful computer system, which records the details of each sortie in great detail. This is a big help for training. The F-16I is basically optimized to deliver smart bombs anywhere, despite dense air defenses. This further increases Israeli military power versus its neighbors. Israel has received 102 new F-16I fighter-bombers in the last eight years and upgraded another 125 older F-16s to the F-16I standard.

Venezuela builds 1st drone with Iran help: Chavez

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says his country has manufactured its first unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), dubbed Arpia-001 (Harpy-001), in cooperation with Iranian experts in order to strengthen the South American state’s defensive power.

Venezuela is manufacturing drones and seeks to increase its defensive and military powers, which has nothing to do against anyone, Chavez said late on Wednesday.

He added that the drone has both military and civilian applications, noting that the UAV has been produced in a way that could be used for non-military operations.

Venezuela is an independent and free country, and is promoting its plans to mount the defensive capabilities in collaboration with Iran, Russia and China, Chavez pointed out.

The UAV has a 100-kilometer (60 mile) sweep and can fly solo for some 90 minutes and reach an altitude of 3,000 meters (9,000 feet).

Venezuela has already manufactured three of the aerial vehicles.

Washington has at times expressed concern about the rising level of ties between Tehran and Caracas.