UN to impose sanctions against the North Korean Space Agency

The Security Council of the UN will impose sanctions against the Space Agency of the DPRK and other North Korean government organizations in a resolution to be voted on this week , a diplomat said Monday.

This resolution, which could be adopted unanimously on Wednesday 15 members of the Council will be a response to the December 12 launch of a North Korean rocket. This launch officially put a satellite in

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orbit, is considered by Western powers as a disguised test new ballistic missile at long range.

According to the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, the resolution will condemn this shooting and reiterate the Council's demand that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons program and refrain from any new missile launch.

The Council, he said, will impose new sanctions against companies and government agencies North Korea, which the space agency responsible for launching, and against several individuals. The text also calls to date lists of nuclear and missile technologies whose transfer to North Korea is prohibited and those that Pyongyang can not export.

The draft resolution, submitted Monday by the United States to the 14 members of the Council, is the result of intense negotiations between Washington and Beijing since the launch of the North Korean rocket on December 12.

Just after the launch, the Security Council met in emergency sentenced him in a simple statement and decided to continue negotiations to find an appropriate response.

The United States, backed by Japan and South Korea, pushing the adoption of tough new sanctions, while China advocated a cautious reaction by the Council. Finally, Beijing has agreed that the text is a resolution, not a statement, and it expands existing sanctions.

N.Korea 'Moves Long-Range Missiles Around the Country'

U.S. intelligence agencies say North Korea is moving mobile missile launchers around the country carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles, the New York Times said Thursday.

The missile was first spotted in a military parade marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung in April last year. At the time, pundits said it was probably a life-sized mock-up. The new mobile missile, called the KN-08, has not yet been operationally deployed, and American officials say it may not be ready for some time," the paper said.

"But the discovery that the mobile units have already been dispersed around the country, where they can be easily hidden, has prompted the White House, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to reassess whether North Korea's missile capabilities are improving at a pace that poses a new challenge to American defenses."

North Korea does not seem to have tested the missile. It is estimated to be 2 m wide and 18 m long with a range of between 5,000 to 6,000 km. The 16-wheeled mobile launcher was smuggled in from China.

Republic of Korea Navy commissions First of Class "Incheon" FFX I Frigate

Republic of Korea Navy commissioned on 17 January 2013 the first of its next next generation FFX I class Frigate. The ship was by Hyundai Heavy Industry and is expected to replace the aging fleet of Pohang class corvettes and Ulsan class frigates, and take over multi-role operations such as coast patrol or anti-submarine warfare.

The class will be built in several batches. Six vessels will be built as Batch I (similar to head of class Incheon), eight Frigates will be built as Batch II by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, and Batch III is also planned for the future.

Batch I vessels are reported to displace 2,500 tons with a length of 114 meters and a beam of 14 meters. The main gun is 127mm similar type to those used by the US Navy. For defense, the Incheon is fitted with a RIM-116 RAM launcher as well as a Phalanx CIWS. The class is also fitted with eight SSM-700K Hae Sung I anti-ship missiles, with an option for eight more land attack variant Haesung missiles in the future.

North Korea vows to bolster war defenses

North Korea vowed Monday to strengthen its defenses amid concerns the country may conduct a nuclear test as a follow-up to last month's long-range rocket launch.

Citing U.S. hostility, Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry said in a memorandum that North Korea will "continue to strengthen its deterrence against all forms of war."

The memorandum carried by state media did not say what action North Korea would take to defend itself. However, North Korea has claimed the right to build atomic weapons to protect itself from the United States, which stations more than 28,000 troops in South Korea.

North Korea sent a satellite into space on Dec. 12 aboard a long-range rocket, a launch that the U.S. and its allies have criticized as a test of banned ballistic missile technology.

In 2006 and 2009, Pyongyang conducted atomic tests after being slapped with U.N. Security Council condemnation and sanctions for similar launches of long-range rockets.

North Korea's Foreign Ministry urged the Washington to dismantle the U.S.-led U.N. Command, which oversees an armistice signed at the close of the Korean War in 1953. It accused the U.S. of trying to turn the U.N. Command into a NATO-like regional military bloc.

Kerry Seen Likely to Favor Greater Engagement With North Korea

As U.S. secretary of State, Senator John Kerry will probably initially favor a policy of more engagement toward routinely hostile North Korea than that pursued by Hillary Clinton’s State Department, issue experts said on Thursday.

President Obama nominated Kerry as his top diplomat in December, and the longtime Democratic lawmaker from Massachusetts is expected to pass easily through the Senate confirmation process.

During his substantial tenure on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Kerry has at times called for more U.S. involvement with the isolated North that focuses on intermediate objectives such as resumption of humanitarian assistance and bilateral negotiations aimed at pausing Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons development.

In a June 2011 commentary for the Los Angeles Times, Kerry faulted Washington’s engagement approach toward Pyongyang. “Our current approach of strong sanctions and intense coordination with South Korea and Japan does not provide sufficient leverage to stabilize the situation, much less bring about a change in North Korean behavior,” he wrote.

It has been the Obama administration’s policy on North Korea for some time that a return to formal aid-for-denuclearization negations be preconditioned on concrete demonstrations by Pyongyang of its sincerity to shutter its nuclear weapons program and to improve relations with Seoul.

Kerry “will be much more forward-leaning and more interested in a less conditional approach to North Korea than Secretary Clinton has had or would be the mood of the overall Obama administration,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation specializing in Northeast Asia.

Early in his first term, Obama said Washington was willing to hold direct talks with Pyongyang that were hoped to lead to a resumption of a regional process aimed at rewarding North Korea’s gradual denuclearization with timed infusions of economic assistance and international security pledges. Obama appointed special envoys to North Korea -- Stephen Bosworth followed by Glyn Davies -- something that the George W. Bush administration did not do.

A number of official bilateral meetings in the last four years have failed to restart the paralyzed six-party nuclear talks involving China, Japan, both Koreas, Russia, and the United States or to prod the pariah nation into reforming its behavior. The U.S. stance has hardened since 2009 as the North conducted its second nuclear test, unveiled a uranium enrichment plant, and launched seve

Ballistic missile: North Korea can reach the United States

According to South Korea, the recent firing of the rocket Unha-3 made by Pyongyang is equivalent to a test ballistic missile with a load of half a ton and a range of about 10,000 km.

The recent firing rocket by North Korea is equivalent to a test ballistic missile with a load of half a ton and a range of about 10,000 km, said Sunday the South Korean army. This distance would allow a North Korean pitcher to reach any point in Asia, Eastern Europe, Western Africa, Alaska and part of the West Coast, including San Francisco. Pyongyang launched on 12 December, with success, a rocket Unha-3 loaded into orbit a satellite civilian mission purely scientific as the North. To its estimates, the South Korean army relied on the analysis of oxidizer tank, a product by combining with another product operates the combustion of the latter fell at sea during launch and recovered by the Navy South. "Based on our analysis and process simulation, the missile is capable of flying more than 10,000 km, with a load of between 500 and 600 kg," said a spokesman for the Ministry of Defence to press.

Pyongan control Does technology ICBMs?

The tank was mounted on the first stage of the rocket. In the absence of debris 2nd and 3rd floors of the Unha-3, South Korean scientists have been unable to determine whether the rocket was able to reenter the atmosphere, a key technology of intercontinental ballistic missiles . Debris recovered by the South consisted of eight panels of aluminum and magnesium welded by hand. "The welding was coarse, handmade," said the ministry official, adding that this type of tank for storing toxic chemicals was rarely used by the powers have a advanced space technology.

According to a study by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) published in 2011, Pyongyang has systems North Korean Taepodong, but BM-25/SS-N-6 Nodong and North Korea "should hold some Copies of longer-range gear deployed north of the country in fixed configurations. " However, the FRS estimates "in 2015 that North Korea will have two regiments Nodong missile type, that is to say, a dozen mobile launchers and several hundred missiles". And noted that "given the cooldown and preparation imposed by the Nodong system, and assuming that its mobile launchers undergo attrition zero, we can assume that North Korea would at most be able to make two launches for a day and a score launch before exhausting its stock of missiles. "

North Korea: Kim Jong-Un ordered the development of larger rockets

The North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered the scientists involved in the space industry to develop new rockets that are larger and more powerful than the one launched in mid-December, reported Saturday the Central News Agency the country (KCNA). "you must develop and launch a range of additional satellites, including communications satellites, rockets and larger capacity," he said Friday at a reception given by way of celebration the successful launch of a long-range rocket ten days ago. On December 12, North Korea launched a multistage rocket Unha-3 which orbited satellite Kwangmyongsong-3. Neighboring countries, including Japan, the United States and South Korea believe this is actually a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that would have a range of 13,000 km. However, two resolutions of the UN Security Council to prohibit any activity Pyongyang nuclear or ballistic. North Korea says its engines are long-range satellite launchers civilian purposes.

N. Korea shipped missile parts to Syria: media

North Korea tried to export ballistic missile parts to Syria in May in violation of UN sanctions, Japanese media said Wednesday, citing diplomats who have seen a classified UN report.
South Korean authorities inspected North Korean cargo bound for Syria and confiscated hundreds of cylinders that could be used to build the weapons, the Asahi Shimbun said.
Seoul in June reported the discovery to the United Nation's North Korea sanctions committee, which then dispatched experts to South Korea to inspect the materials, the liberal daily said.
If confirmed, the reported action shows Pyongyang violated UN bans on trading military- and weapons-related materials, imposed successively since 2006 after nuclear tests by the secretive regime.
The 445 graphite cylinders were on a Chinese-registered freighter with a cargo bound for a Syrian company with North Korean links, Kyodo News said, citing UN diplomats.
The Asahi said South Korea confiscated 535 cylinders, disguised as lead pipes that would have no connection to ballistic missiles.
The finding was included in a report filed this month to members of a special committee that is charged with overseeing the implementation of sanctions imposed on North Korea, Kyodo said.
The apparent attempt at arms exports came shortly after the UN Security Council adopted a presidential statement calling for tougher sanctions against Pyongyang, which in April attempted but failed to launch a satellite.

Satellite imagery shows North Korea missile activity in defiance of U.N. ban

Satellite imagery indicates North Korea has been testing rocket engines, a sign it continues to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, a U.S. academic institute said Monday.
The analysis provided to The Associated Press is based on satellite images taken as recently as late September of the Sohae site on the secretive country's northwest coast. In April, the North launched a rocket from there in a failed attempt to propel a satellite into space in defiance of a U.N. ban.
The analysis on the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, which is called "38 North," said it remains unclear whether the North is preparing another rocket launch but predicted it may embark on new rocket and nuclear tests in the first half of 2013.
The analysis underscores the challenges posed by the North's weapons programs to the United States and its allies as President Barack Obama heads into his second term. Washington's most recent attempt to negotiate a freeze in the North's nuclear program and a test moratorium in exchange for food aid collapsed with the April launch that the U.S. regarded as a cover for testing ballistic missile technology.
In 2009, North Korea tested a long-range missile and its second nuclear weapon within months of Obama taking office, and the 38 North analysis says North Korea may conduct new tests in the aftermath of presidential elections recently completed in U.S. and due in December in South Korea. That could be viewed as a tactic to exert more pressure on the close allies as the North seeks recognition as a nuclear power.

N. Korea ready to conduct nuke, missile tests: minister

South Korea's defence minister said Thursday that North Korea has completed preparations for another nuclear test, and would also test-launch long-range missiles sometime in the future.
"Many preparations have been made for a third nuclear test," Kim Kwan-Jin told reporters, adding the timing would depend on "a political decision".
The communist country carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
Kim also predicted that the North would make another attempt at some time to test-fire a long-range missile, after the failure of its rocket launch in April.
Pyongyang said its intention was to put a peaceful research satellite into orbit, while Washington and its allies saw the exercise as a disguised test of banned ballistic missile technology.
In September, US website 38 North said satellite imagery showed the North had halted work at a site capable of launching intercontinental missiles, possibly setting the project back by up to two years.
The website of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies said the cause of the work stoppage was unclear, although heavy rain might be a factor.

North Korea test-fired short-range missile last week: source

North Korea last week test-fired one short-range missile off its west coast a day after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak presided over a meeting of security ministers, a government source said Thursday.

North Korea fired a surface-to-ship missile into the Yellow Sea on Sept. 27 and the launch could be related to the security ministers' meeting, the source said on the condition of anonymity.

"The missile was estimated to have flown about 80-90 kilometers," the source said.

A day before the launch, Lee and top security officials decided to urge North Korea to halt any attempt to affect South Korea's presidential election and reaffirmed their pledge to strongly punish the North in case of provocations.

"The test-firing could be a part of the North's routine efforts to improve their capabilities and range, but there was an assessment that it could be a reaction to our government's movement," the source said.

In recent years, it has not been unusual for North Korea to conduct short-range missile tests.

The security ministers' meeting took place amid heightened tensions around the Yellow Sea border between the two Koreas in the wake of numerous intrusions by North Korean fishing boats. The South's Navy fired warnings shots to repel North Korean vessels on Sept. 21.

North Korea Rejects Offer Of Aid From South Korea

North Korea on Wednesday rejected a South Korean offer to send it humanitarian aid, scuttling earlier hopes of easing tensions between the two Koreas.

South Korea made the offer Sept. 3. On Monday, North Korea told South Korea that it was ready to discuss it and asked what the South planned to provide and how much. That raised hopes that the two governments might resume dialogue after years of tension.

The North has repeatedly refused contact with the government of President Lee Myung-bak.
In a letter to the North on Tuesday, South Korea said it could deliver 10,000 tons of flour, three million packets of instant noodles and medicine. It added that it was willing to discuss additional aid once the two sides met.

On Wednesday, the South Korean Ministry of Unification said that the North had turned this down. “In its response today, the North expressed dissatisfaction and said, ‘We don’t need such aid,”’ it said. “It’s deeply regrettable that the North Korean government is rejecting our offer to help the North Korean people.”
In a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea called the South’s “meager” offer “deeply insulting.”

Iran, North Korea Sign Technology Agreement

Iran and North Korea signed a scientific and technological cooperation agreement Saturday, bringing the two nations deeply at odds with the U.S. closer together.

Iranian state TV did not provide further details on the document but said it will include setting up joint scientific and technological laboratories, exchange of scientific teams between the two countries and transfer of technology in the fields of information technology, energy, environment, agriculture and food.

Any technical accord between Pyongyang and Tehran is likely to raise suspicions in the West. The U.S. has repeatedly accused North Korea of providing Iran with advanced missiles capable of targeting Western European capitals.

Last year, Iran denied a U.N. panel report saying that North Korea and Iran appear to have been regularly exchanging ballistic missiles, components and technology in violation of U.N. sanctions.

Iran's state TV said the agreement was signed in Tehran in the presence of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and North Korea's nominal head of state, Kim Yong Nam, by Iran's Minister of Science, Research and Technology Kamran Daneshjoo and North Korea's Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun.

DPRK wants China's Flying Leopards

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) will invest more funds in the acquisition of advanced fighting equipment for its air force and is now considering buying several JH 7 Flying Leopard fighter-bombers from China, the MBC News reported.

 Kim Jong II once asked to buy Flying Leopards from China, but failed to actually do so.

There have been recent reports stating that Kim Jong Un might pay a visit to China and propose his plan to buy fighter jets from China.

Analysts have said that the DPRK air force could not enhance its overall fighting power by merely strengthening training. It also needs to import more advanced equipment. One way to swiftly increase its fighting capacity is to equip the air force with a type of fighter-bomber.

At present, only Russia and China might sell their fighter jets to the DPRK. But due to its limited arms production capacity, the Russian air force does not possess mass-equipped, high-functional fighter-bombers and its Sukhoi Su-34 fighters only have a limited production and thus may not be available for export.

North Korea could have fuel for 48 nuclear weapons by 2015

North Korea will have been able to build as many as 48 nuclear weapons by 2015 unless the international community is able to make sanctions already imposed on the regime work. 

 

The stark warning about Pyongyang's nuclear stockpile was issued by The Institute for Science and International Security, which projected three scenarios for North Korea's atomic weapons programme.

In the best-case scenario for the next four years outlined by the researchers, North Korea will have been able to use the centrifuges at its Yongbyon nuclear plant to produce sufficient low enriched uranium for a maximum of 25 nuclear weapons.

N. Korea may be preparing for nuke, missile tests

North Korea may be preparing to conduct a nuclear or missile test in the near future, a government report submitted during a meeting with ruling party lawmakers showed Friday.

   "The defense ministry claimed that the communist country was prepared to carry out tests with little preparation time," said a senior Saenuri official, who declined to be identified.

   The party official said while the report alluded to the communist country's capabilities, Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin did not touch on the matter during the meeting.

   Pyongyang has conducted two nuclear tests so far, and launched several missiles it claims are designed to carry satellites into orbit. Most outside observers said such rockets are in fact missiles the country is developing to target the United States.

In Asia, A Wave Of Escalating Territorial Disputes

The disputed islands and islets in Asia are, on the whole, an unimpressive bunch. Most are rocky, windswept outcroppings far from any mainland. One has a lighthouse but no people.
But these tiny territories, sweeping from southeast to northeast Asia, are fiercely contested among countries that are buoyed by nationalism and by a growing thirst for the natural resources off their shores. At a time when the United States has promised to play a greater role in Asia, some security experts say the territories represent the region’s greatest potential flash point aside from North Korea.

The territorial disputes involve nearly a dozen countries in at least three major seas, and they have set off a chaotic crisscross of conflict in some of the world’s most trafficked shipping lanes. The disputes are not all connected, but analysts say that several of Asia’s key countries — China, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines — have in recent months followed a similar pattern, turning old historical squabbles into national priorities, escalating tensions and raising the chances of a small-scale armed conflict.
The countries are driven to claim these far-flung offshore territories in part because of their gro

North Korea Deploys Attack Helicopters Near Sea Border

North Korea has placed several dozen combat helicopters near its sea border with South Korea, the Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday citing South Korean government sources.
North Korea has deployed around 50 upgraded Russian-made helicopters on Baeknyeong Island in the West Sea since May.
The attack helicopters are armed with rockets and antitank missiles and are capable of carrying explosives weighing up to 500 kilograms.
The deployment appears to come in response to South Korea stationing AH-1S Cobra attack helicopters and multiple launch rocket systems on the West Sea islands.
South Korea is ready to strike back with Cheonma surface-to-air-missiles or deploy KF-16 fighter jets, the source said.
Asian Defence News

Army chief of North Korea removed from office

The head of the North Korean Army was relieved of his duties "due to illness," said Monday, July 16 the agency official, a public announcement in this country very unexpected secret, which signals the willingness of the new leader curb the power of the military analysts said.

Ri Yong-ho, 69, is considered one of the key figures who supported the young leader Kim Jong-one during the transition of power in North Korea following the death of his father, Kim Jong- it, in December 2011. The Chief of Staff, appreciated Kim Jong-il, was appointed in 2009 to head the army, consisting of 1.2 million soldiers (for a population of 24 million inhabitants), the fourth the world in terms of numbers. He had been seen repeatedly in recent months accompanying the new leader when touring military bases. He was present at the tribute paid by Kim Jong-un to his grandfather Kim Il-sung on the occasion of the anniversary of his death in early July.

At a meeting of the Politburo of the ruling party, it was decided "to raise Ri Yong-ho of all its functions [...] due to illness," said KCNA, the news agency North Korean, received in Seoul. Ri was a member of the Presidium of the Politburo, the body's most powerful countries, which do serve a handful of individuals, and vice-president of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea, the agency said . This party is the only North Korea, Communist dictatorship headed by an iron fist since 1948 by three generations of Kim (grandfather, father and son).

AN ARMY TOO POWERFUL?

The Ministry of Unification of South Korea, responsible for relations between the two countries, noted the side "unusual" the KCNA announcement. "What was announced as quickly is very unusual. We study the situation with interest," said the press spokesman of the Ministry. Ri Yong-ho was one of seven executives of the party and the army to have accompanied Kim Jong-un the side of the hearse of his father Kim Jong-il in December.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, questioned the official reason for the departure of Chief of Staff, noting that Pyongyang rarely dismissed for health reasons, the top regime officials, many of which are very old. "He may have fallen out of favor with Kim Jong-un, or has lost a power struggle with other military leaders," suggests the expert.

For Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute, the young leader seeks to strengthen control of the Communist Party over the army, become too powerful for him under the Songun policy ("military first") continued by his father until 2010. "Jong-A will now ensure that the party keep under control an army that has become overloaded, an effort that his father had begun to undertake the end of 2010", a year before his death, says the analyst.

The Logic of China’s North Korea Policy

US and South Korean analysts are annoyed and frustrated by China’s policy toward North Korea. In their eyes, Beijing’s policy not only jeopardizes the security of the US and the ROK and undermines international norms, but is detrimental to China’s own national interests as well.

But judgments about whether China’s North Korea policy is illogical or self-defeating depend very much on what people see as China’s goals. Most Chinese analysts would argue that China’s policy has its own internal logic; whether the US and South Korea see that logic is a different matter.

The widely accepted assumption is that China has three goals when it comes to North Korea: stability (no implosion and no war), peace (diplomatic normalization between the US and North Korea), and denuclearization/nonproliferation. Among these three, China prioritizes stability over peace and denuclearization. The secondary status of denuclearization is a sore spot for Washington and Seoul, which see it as the most important goal (or should be). And while different priorities lead to different approaches, North Korean actions have been destabilizing. Therefore, China’s strategy is counterproductive in terms of its own priority, hence illogical.

This analysis misses a more fundamental, strategic aspect of China’s views of its security environment and the North Korea issue. China is increasingly anxious and concerned about US strategic intentions toward China and the China-related utility of its military alliances in East Asia. For most Chinese, Americans and South Koreans cite the North Korea threat to justify the existence and strengthening of the military alliance, creating the impression that the alliance will lose its raison d’etre after the North Korea issue is solved. The US and ROK have in recent years sought to “regionalize” and “globalize” the alliance with no clear indication that the future alliance would not “target” or “affect” China. This raises a fundamental question in China: why should China help the US and ROK on North Korea against its own security interests?
The announcement of the US pivot to Asia has intensified these suspicions and concerns. Most Chinese and US analysts believe that the problem between their two countries is structural. They share the view that the rise of China inevitably threatens the US status as a superpower. This power structure dictates that some of the most important goals and policies of the two countries will conflict. Therefore, the US pivot to Asia, including its perceived “meddling” in South China Sea disputes and increasing deployments in the Asia Pacific, are seen as specific steps to counter China’s rise. The US-ROK alliance is an intrinsic element of this strategy (with or without the North Korea problem). Hence, China’s logic regarding North Korea policy is clear: China will not help the US and ROK solve the North Korea problem or speed up a China-unfriendly resolution since China is “next on the list.”

Many Chinese analysts see Seoul’s ambiguity when it comes to addressing China’s concerns as unfortunate. For them, Seoul is using ambiguity toward China’s concerns to maximize its policy flexibility, play the US and China against each other to improve its own position, and act as a middle power balancer between the two. Therefore, when South Koreans criticize China’s North Korea policy or lobby for a change, Chinese respond with the old “stability” argument, but privately think that “You can’t have your cake and eat it too.”

To be fair, China’s North Korea policy is problematic. North Korean provocations cost China dearly: financially, politically, and when it comes to security. Ample debates within the Chinese policy community on what it should do about North Korea are a powerful demonstration of how serious the issue has become and how uncomfortable China is. However, when China puts the issue in the broader context of US-China relations and regional dynamics, North Korea isn’t the most serious or fundamental challenge to China’s national security and strategic interests. The current policy is problematic, but the alternative seems worse. That’s why China chooses to muddle through while hoping economic reform will bring about a North Korea modeled after China.

To dissuade China of this logic will be extremely difficult. It will require serious and reliable reassurances by the US and South Korea that the future of their alliance will not come at China’s expense. This could be strategically unwise and politically impossible. Given the amount of distrust China harbors, it may not even work. But without such dissuasion, lobbying China for a policy change on North Korea will fail.

China might change its strategic calculation if North Korea launches new provocations and drags the region into a military conflict. China may not be willing to step into a direct conflict with the US and will try to manage tension through other channels. However, as shown by China’s response to the two nuclear tests and provocations in 2010, Beijing’s tolerance for North Korea is quite high. People often wonder what China can NOT tolerate when it comes to North Korea.

A third possibility is that North Korea implodes or China falls before it rises. These might happen, but so far no country is basing its policy on those possibilities.

China knows that it has to live with the US-ROK alliance. There is practically nothing China can do to stop it, although Beijing doesn’t like that either. As long as China is hostile toward and suspicious about the strategic intentions of the US and China’s “utility” in the future US-ROK military alliance, Beijing sees no reason to change its policy on North Korea issue to speed up any resolution of the problem.