Today the Nikkei featured an article
(日) that raised once again the possibility of Japan transferring the
technology underpinning the prized Soryu submarine to Australia. The
article did not offer much additional detail about how the process from
here is likely to unfold, although it did frame the technology transfer
as part of a supposedly mutual desire to balance against Chinese naval
activities. It nevertheless suggests that defense officials are still
considering the plan and that the chances are good that something will
come out of the process notwithstanding any domestic or international
backlash. The main issue for the Japanese side likely revolves what
level of information and access to provide to the Royal Australian Navy.
As
for the back story, the process appeared to be initiated in May 2012
when a senior Australian official inspected the Soryu at the MSDF’s Kure
Base in Hiroshima Prefecture. Then in June 2012 the issue was further
discussed during a visit to Australia by Admiral Masahiko Sugimoto. Soon
after that in July 2012 Rear-Admiral Rowan Moffitt, head of the Future
Submarine Program, and Dr Alexander Zelinsky, the Chief Defense
Scientist, traveled to Japan to further inspect the Soryu. Then in
September 2012 Defense Minister Stephen Smith confirmed that Australia
was indeed considering at least the submarine’s propulsion systems as
part of a technology deal.
All
things being equal it would seem like this deal is likely to be done as
it offers strategic benefits for both sides. However, both sides may
still need to be somewhat flexible as the two sides have bottom lines
that may stand in the way of deep collaboration. First, the Australian
side will demand that the subs be built in Australia to enhance
Australia’s shipbuilding industry centred on Adelaide, as well as to
keep Australian tax dollars and jobs onshore. While Japan in December
2011 relaxed its arms export restrictions, which has allowed this deal
to be considered in the first place, these restrictions were however
ostensibly relaxed to allow Japanese defense manufacturers to engage in
the joint development of sophisticated weapons systems with other
partners. A simple one-way transfer of technology was not necessarily
envisaged, and in any respect, the technology that gave birth to the
Soryu has been nurtured over the last 30 to 40 years in Japan and the
Japanese government, MHI, and Kawasaki are not likely to let go of the
full suite of technologies and design specifications without
considerable benefits being extracted in return. If Japan was unable to
extract any offsets from the transfer of the technology then it might
get cold feet at the last minute and back out of the deal. More likely
is that the two sides might only come to an agreement on a partial
transfer, perhaps of AIP system technologies only. This would still be a
big deal nevertheless, especially coming on the back of similar
hardware-related collaborative developments in the UK-Japan defense
relationship, and with something similar with India surely not being too
far away.
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