Thursday, June 14, 2012

Mali - The Up Coming next war of 2012

The Security Council of the United Nations could quickly endorse an African military intervention in northern Mali.

While the Security Council of the UN fails to agree on the Syrian issue, he could at the same time quickly decide an intervention in Mali. Worried about the installation of "terrorist gangs" in the north,Francois Hollande has guaranteed, Monday, the support of France in a military operation of the Economic Community of Africa West (ECOWAS), in the aegis of the UN. "If an intervention is ordered, it is up to Africans in the lead, France, like other powers by serving the United Nations," said the French president.

"Francois Hollande is particularly cautious on the issue," said Antoine Glaser (1). "The Algeria 's main partner in the region, will not hear of French forces on its borders, especially since the Algerian constitution forbids him to intervene in its neighbors, "the Africa specialist. We remember, in the same way, as the African Union had strongly opposed the NATO action in Libya , with the result that we know.But in the case of the Sahel, the opponent as the field remains far more unstable.

Hell Sahara

Hell in the Sahara, international support, at least logistics, seems indispensable. "The means of ECOWAS are not appropriate for the region, in both material and financial," said Pierre Jacquemot, research associate at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) . "Acting requires Sahara air assets, small fast ground equipment as well as seasoned soldiers: everything a classic African army does not have," the specialist sub-Saharan Africa. African intervention could it therefore pave the way for a future dispatch of peacekeepers? A hypothesis "credible if necessary," Judge journalist Serge Daniel (2). A scenario in turn qu'écarte Pierre Jacquemot, "given the difficulties already faced by the UN in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI), in which seven peacekeepers were killed Friday in an ambush.

One and half times larger than France, for a population density of no more than 1.2 people per square kilometer, northern Mali is historically claimed by the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) , a group Muslim Tuareg - but secular - who fight for fifty years to wrest independence from the Bamako region. "He was helped in this direction by the former French government of Nicolas Sarkozy , in particular to counter the ambitions of the Islamist group Ansar Dine Tuareg (Defender of Islam, Arabic, Ed) , "said Antoine Glaser. This last movement, close to al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), advocates the introduction of sharia.

Islamic State

These two Tuareg groups, with different ambitions, however, have joined forces earlier this year in their fight against the Malian army. Their discovery explains in part the military coup of 22 March, which ended ten years of reign of Amadou Toumani Toure. Coup leaders accused the president of Mali, including not enough work to remedy the chaos in the North the country, which resulted, according to the UN, the flight of at least 126,400 Malians abroad since last January.

However, far from halting the advance of the rebels, the weakness of the new power-cons proved productive. Deprived of all command, the Malian army could not hold off the attacks Tuareg, who seized Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal, the three major northern cities. And dramatic turn of events, May 27, the warring brothers, the MNLA and Ansar Dine, announced their merger and proclaimed the establishment of the Islamic State of Azawad. A statement later refuted by several in the wings MNLA, showing significant disagreement on the application "hardline" of sharia.

Afghan errors

"We can not have real collusion between the two trends," said Pierre Jacquemot. "The Tuareg of MNLA never accept an Islamic state on the land of Timbuktu or Gao," insists the researcher. Problem, according to journalist Serge Daniel, MLNA forces are virtually absent on the ground against Ansar Dine, combined with AQIM. Praising jihad in West Africa, the regional branch of al-Qaida have recently recorded the arrival of fighters come straight to Afghanistan and Pakistan. "AQIM found in poor countries of the Sahel his new fiefdom," said Antoine Glaser. "A perfect hideout", adds Serge Daniel.

The organization now lives mainly in drug trafficking and abductions of Western civilians, including six French hostages still being held in the Sahel. AQIM also be based on bi-combatants, according to Serge Daniel, trained to carry out attacks directly in France. Like Afghanistan, where Taliban were armed by the U.S. against the Soviets, the jihadists would benefit from using much of the West involuntary. "The fall of Gaddafi has caused the dispersal of sophisticated weaponry in northern Mali, says Antoine Glaser. Number of Tuareg working for the Libyan security forces, who assured them a proper financing. Today they are found in the ranks of the rebellion. "

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