Despite
widely reported concerns of blowback in Syria due to the arming of
jihadist groups, a military build-up on Syria’s borders is proceeding
apace.
Racep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist
government in Turkey is leading the way, using the pretext of stray
mortar fire from Syria that killed five civilians to legitimise the
deployment of 250 tanks, jets, helicopter gunships, troops, artillery
emplacements and antiaircraft batteries on the border.
The Turkish Parliament recently granted war
powers to Erdogan to send troops into Syria. Daily targeting of Syrian
facilities was followed last week by the use of F16s to force down a
civilian Syrian Airlines Airbus en route to Damascus from Moscow, with
claims that it was carrying Russian weaponry.
Erdogan used the United Nations Security
Council as a platform to attack Russia and China—“one or two members of
the permanent five”—for vetoing anti-Syrian resolutions and demand an
overhaul of the Security Council.
Turkey, along with the Gulf States led by
Qatar, is also behind a push to unite Syria’s divided opposition forces,
with the explicit aim of overcoming the qualms of the Western powers
over arming the opposition and backing it militarily. There is an
agreement to announce a joint leadership on November 4 at a conference
in Qatar, just two days before the US presidential elections.
Foreign supporters “are telling us: ‘Sort
yourselves out and unite, we need a clear and credible side to provide
it with quality weapons,’” a source said.
Ensuring an effective command structure
under the nominal discipline of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the
actual control of Turkey and its allies requires the inclusion of rival
military leaders Riad al-Asaad, Mustafa Sheikh and Mohammad Haj Ali (all
defectors from the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad), as well
as various leaders of provincial military councils inside Syria. Funds
are also being funneled into the Local Coordinating Committees—hitherto
held up by various ex-left groups around the world as being independent
of the imperialist powers.
UN Arab League mediator Lakhdar Brahimi is
making great play of urging Iran to arrange a four-day cease-fire
beginning October 25 to mark the Muslim religious holiday of Eid
al-Adha. He is saying less about a proposal, more indicative of the UN’s
role, to dispatch a 3,000-strong troop force to Syria.
The Daily Telegraph reported that Brahimi
“has spent recent weeks quietly sounding out which countries would be
willing to contribute soldiers” to such a force, ostensibly to be made
operable following a future truce.
The direct involvement of US and British
forces would be “unlikely”, given their role in Iraq, Afghanistan and
Libya, so Brahimi “is thought to be looking at more nations that
currently contribute to Unifil, the 15,000-strong mission set up to
police Israel’s borders with Lebanon.”
These include Germany, France, Italy, Spain
and Ireland—“one of which would be expected to play a leading role in
the Syria peacekeeping force.”
The proposal was leaked by the Syrian
National Council (SNC), with whom Brahami met in Turkey at the weekend.
On Monday, the SNC was meeting for a two-day summit in the Qatari
capital, Doha. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani,
took the occasion to push for military intervention in Syria. He told
reporters, “Any mission that is not well armed will not fulfil its aim.
For this, it must have enough members and equipment to carry out its
duty.”
The SNC’s 35-member general secretariat was
meeting in Doha to discuss “the establishment of mechanisms to
administer the areas which have been liberated” in Syria, according to
sources.
Discussions of the direct involvement of
European troops in Syria are in line with confirmed reports that the US
and Britain have despatched military forces to Jordan, for the purported
purpose of policing its border and preventing a spill-over of the
conflict.
US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta
acknowledged the move at an October 10 meeting of NATO defence ministers
in Brussels. The US has repeatedly issued denials of a growing military
presence in Turkey located at the Incirlik airbase, but Panetta
confirmed that Washington had “worked with” Turkey on “humanitarian, as
well as chemical and biological weapons issues.”
The next day, the Times of London and the
New York Times reported that Britain too has upward of 150 soldiers and
military advisors in Jordan. Jordanian military sources said France may
also be involved.
Anonymous senior US defence officials told
Reuters that most of those sent to Jordan were Army Special Operations
forces, deployed at a military centre near Amman and moving “back and
forth to the Syrian border” to gather intelligence and “plan joint
Jordanian-US military manoeuvres.”
There is “talk of contingency plans for a
quick pre-emptive strike if al Assad loses control over his stock of
chemical weapons in the civil war,” Reuters added.
Turkey’s bellicose stand has produced
widespread media reports that the US and other NATO powers risk being
“dragged into” a wider regional war. This in part reflects real concerns
and divisions within imperialist ruling circles and in part an effort
to conceal the Western powers’ instrumental role in encouraging military
conflict.
Attention has been drawn to the refusal of
NATO to heed appeals by Turkey for it to invoke Article 5 of its charter
authorising the military defence of a member nation. But despite this,
NATO has publicly gone a long way towards endorsing Turkey’s actions.
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh
Rasmussen told reporters at the same Brussels summit that “obviously
Turkey can rely on NATO solidarity… Taking into account the situation at
our southeastern border, we have taken the steps necessary to make sure
that we have all plans in place to protect and defend Turkey,”
[emphasis added].
The previous day, a senior US defence
official said, “We engage with Turkey to make sure that should the time
come where Turkey needs help, we're able to do what we can.”
In an indication of the type of discussions
taking place in the corridors of power, several policy advisers have
gone into print to outline their proposals for a proxy military
intervention by Turkey to which the US could then lend overt support.
Jorge Benitez, a senior fellow at the
Atlantic Council, urged in the October 15 Christian Science Monitor: “To
preserve its credibility in Turkey and the region, NATO should offer
radar aircraft and/or rapid reaction forces.”
“Too much attention has been focused on the
question of invoking Article 5, the alliance’s mutual defence clause,”
he added. Other options were available. Before the US-led war against
Iraq in 2003, he noted, Turkey had requested a consultative meeting
under Article 4 of the NATO treaty “to discuss how the alliance could
help Turkey deter an attack from Iraq.”
Using this pretext, NATO approved Operation
Display Deterrence, including the dispatch of four AWACS radar
aircraft, five Patriot air defence batteries, equipment for chemical and
biological defence, and “more than 1,000 ‘technically advanced and
highly capable forces’ to support Turkey during the Iraq conflict.”
Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy published an article in the October 11 New York
Times on a three-point strategy he called “the right way for Turkey to
intervene in Syria.”
He urged Turkey to “continue the current
pattern of shelling across the border every time Syria targets Turkey”
in order to “weaken Syrian forces” and let the FSA “fill the vacuum;” to
“combine shelling with cross-border raids to target Kurdish militants
in Syria;” and, if things “get worse along the border,” to stage “a
limited invasion to contain the crisis as it did in Cyprus in the
1970s.”
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