Controversy characterises the reported presence of China’s People’s Liberation Army troops in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Pakistan Army brigadier Masood Ahmed, chief of staff, earthquake reconstruction and rehabilitation authority, coordinates 14 projects in which China has invested more than $6 billion. China’s expanding military footprint in PoK attracts attention as Beijing has virtually taken over the entire disputed region in Kashmir under the guise of reconstruction and rehabilitation after the 2005 earthquake that hit the region.
A seminar held at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC, in January highlighted that Chinese construction and telecommunication companies have obtained contracts to expand the Karakoram highway, construct tunnels and mega dams at Diamayar Bhasa, Bunji and Skardu. But from an environmental perspective these Chinese developmental projects have the potential to induce seismic activity and submerge hundreds of villages and historic heritages.
Moreover, diversion tunnels are bound to create instabilities from mountain wall under cutting. The recessional moraines (loose debris) and material left by retreating glaciers are inherently unstable and prone to rock wall collapses. Collateral damage across the region will be devastating and therefore the issue also merits attention, according to the seminar proceedings.
Reputed Pakistani journalist Amir Mir has revealed that China now seeks to establish military bases in the Af-Pak region, where US troops are deployed. These Chinese military bases are to be established in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas or in Gilgit-Baltistan, a region that borders China and has traditionally been considered part of Jammu & Kashmir.
From an Indian security perspective, Chinese military presence in PoK has political as well as military implications, considering J&K is a disputed territory. The Sino-Pakistan collaboration underway through infrastructure development projects in Gilgit-Baltistan clearly challenges India’s sovereignty over those J&K territories under China’s occupation.
Logically, therefore, such a Chinese position vis-à-vis PoK complicates any future moves towards settlement of the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. The Sino-Pak relationship also threatens India with a potential two-front theatre in the event of war with either country. Moreover, Beijing also welcomes tensions in the New Delhi-Islamabad relationship so as to confine India to South Asia. In turn, this curtails Indian ability to engage China elsewhere and ensures that New Delhi remains bogged down in the region — unable to extend its footprint globally.
Clearly, China’s strategy to establish military presence in PoK goes back to the construction of the Karakoram highway which commenced in 1959 and ended in 1979. The highway, connecting China and Pakistan at an altitude of 4,693 m, is referred to as the ‘Ninth Wonder of the World’.
What is the Chinese strategic rationale to establish military bases in Pakistan? Evidently, the Chinese strategy is to get access to the Arabian Sea and similar to US military presence in the Af- Pak region, to curb Islamic fundamentalism that threatens the stability and security of Xinjiang. The PLA aims to effectively counter the Muslim separatists based in FATA who undertake cross-border terrorist operations in Xinjiang. Amir Mir says the Chinese intentions are to contain the growing terrorist activities of the Chinese rebels belonging to the al-Qaeda-linked East Turkestan Islamic Movement. The Chinese Muslim rebels want the creation of an independent Islamic state and are allegedly being trained in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Otherwise, Chinese strategic interests in the region are to eventually extend its economic linkages to West Asia through the Pakistani port of Gwadar in Balochistan province.
Today, Chinese involvement in Gilgit-Baltistan transcends diplomatic and military support to Pakistan, and as Beijing gradually entrenches itself in PoK, Pakistan would perhaps allow China to assume a greater role in the Kashmir dispute. Clearly, the Chinese role today in PoK suggests a shift in Beijing’s policy on the Kashmir dispute in favour of Pakistan.
Till now, the Sino-Pakistan military relationship was confined to arms transfers or joint development of weapon systems, which implied an indirect Chinese threat posed through Pakistan to India. But now with Chinese military presence in Pakistan, this amounts to a direct potential threat to India. Evidently, a Chinese presence evokes broader security concerns with regional and extra-regional ramifications.
Now India not only has to cope with the massive development of Chinese military infrastructure along the 4,057-kilometer long Line of Actual Control — especially in the Tibet Autonomous Region— but also a Chinese military presence along the volatile 778-kilometer-long Line of Control between India and Pakistan that re-aligns the strategic environment in South Asia.
The writer teaches a course on strategic studies at Christ University, Bangalore
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