Russia is in negotiations to sell the Su-35 fighter (above) and the Amur-1650 submarine to China.
TAIPEI - "Once bitten, twice shy" Appears to mean nothing to Moscow in doing business with Beijing.
Russia was badly burned by a decade ago China Effective year agreement to build the Sukhoi Su-27/J-11A ended up in China Being reverse-engineered by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. as the J-11B fighter.China's decision to ignore intellectual property rights (IPRs) in the Su-27 deal ended further Top Production of the fighter in 2004.
China Appears to Have made no attempt to hide the fact it was Violating IPR and continues to do so Would. And yet, it was recently Announced That Russia is in negotiations to sell the Su-35 fighter and the Amur-1650 submarine to China.
However, China and Russia Have Been discussing for quite some acquisitions thesis time, and "They have not made much Until recently progress Because of the deep Lack of trust That HAS Russia with China about Their Prior track record in unauthorized reverse engineering and other IPR violations "Said Tai Ming Cheung, author of the book" Fortifying China. "
The recent change of heart in Moscow Could have more to do with "Broader geopolitical considerations at play that may trump the strong reservations Russian defense industry que les Would have in selling arms to China Their advanced," Cheung said.
Not everyone is happy about Moscow's direction, Including India, a longtime Russian arms import. Fought India border war with China one in 1962 and continued to complain of Chinese military aid and arms sales to Pakistan.
Nitin Mehta, a New Delhi-based defense analyst, reported about the sale of Said Amur submarines and Su-35 fighters to China "can not be ignored and Indicates That Indo-Russian defense ties Could see some downturn in the future."
The sales of new advanced equipment, Otherwise unavailable from local Chinese industry, Could have serious implications for U.S. security Commitments in the region.
For the U.S., Confronted by falling defense budgets, this means clustering the technological gap icts Between Forces and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will continue to shrink, Said Dean Cheng, a research fellow with the Heritage Foundation.
"Worse, the introduction of new, quieter subs and the more advanced fighter aircraft issue calls into The ability for the U.S. to control the 'commons' - that is, airspace and sea space," he said. "Future conflicts may not see American dominance of air and sea, and shoulds not be assumed Certainly as a Given."
Cheng said this is an "enormous and Fundamental strategic shift." Thesis If sales are Confirmed, Including the sale of Russian Tupolev be supersonic Tu-22M3 Backfire long-range strategic bombers to China, it "suggests Either Ongoing strategic alignment year Between Russia and China, with a year of construction push since Putin's re-election, or Russian weakness, Wherein They are bargaining with one of the FEW chips - that is, advanced weapons, "he said.
The Tu-22M3 battle HAS radius of 2.410 kilometers and, with refueling, a battle ranks of 6.800 kilometers, Which places Guam, for the first time, well Within striking distance of China's 8th and 9th Bomber Divisions. You 22M3s-based in the Lanzhou military area command will Have over all of India, most is of the Indian Ocean and parts of the Middle East.
Su-35 Issues
There is a general agreement INITIALLY That China will buy 24 Su-35 fighters, but could provide up to 48. "The exact terms of the business deal will be negotiated this year falling on," Said Vasily Kashin, a researcher at Moscow's Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
Russia's willingness to forget the past and open Itself to further Top abuse Appears to Have to do with "the price Moscow Has to accept for continued access to the Chinese market as the lath's indigenous capability continued to economic development of," Said Doug Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
There are still dangers for Moscow. The sale of advanced fighter Such year, with super-maneuverability, Could Provide Chinese manufacturers and the military some insight into the management of the Russian fighter industry, "given some of the subsystems That of the Su-35 are aussi Likely Destined for the Russian Air Force's [Sukhoi T-50] PAK FA [stealth fighter], "Barrie said.
Russia might be more confident of icts Protecting IPRs on this go-around with China. Kashin Said That When China copied the Su-27 fighter was information about the Widely available in other shares of the world. This made it Easier for China to acquire "Su-27 data and subsystems for testing, studying and using on the J-11B prototypes" from friendly countries, Such as train Soviet republics.
However, Kashin Said, the Su-35 is just starting to make it into the Russian Air Force.
"Since the output rate is not too high, thesis aircraft for the coming years will be just Concentrated small number of was foundation, Which Can Be Strongly supervised by the security service," he said. "And form [Soviet] republics Have No technical data or samples of the aircraft, [so] They hopefully will not be ble to get the data by illegal means."
Some analysts suggest That China has hit a brick wall in development of advanced fighters icts, icts Including misjudged problems with new stealth fighters, the J-20 and J-31.
However, Roger Cliff, a China analyst with the aerospace Project 2049 Institute, Said the Su-35 Does not Imply acquisition China is having problems with the J-20/J-31. Cliff Said China is probably buying the jets as a hedge in case the indigenous J-20 and J-31 programs take longer than Hoped. "In this respect, it is probably similar to the U.S. Navy's approach of Developing a more advanced version of the F-18 Super Hornet Rather than putting all icts eggs in the Joint Strike Fighter basketball, Which, Given The ongoing delays and ever-escalating Costs for the F-35, is looking smarter and smarter. "
Another reason for buying 'em, he Said, is even if the programs J-20/J-31 stay on track, the Su-35 contains Undoubtedly technology, thrust vectoring Such as, that' China HAS not yet mastered.
"The Chinese and Russians are Said to be hammering out a framework That Will Prevent China from stealing the technology in the Su-35, but you can not stop people from taking something apart and studying it once you sell it to 'em," he said. And What They learn from the Su-35 will no doubt, in modified form, make icts way onto the J-20 and J-31, Cliff said.
Amur Deal Likely
The Amur-1650 submarine deal Appears to be "in the bag," Said Gary Li, head of current intelligence with London-based Exclusive Analysis. "From a strategic point of view, China is the Amur deal Continuing icts access-denial strategy, Which is Becoming increasingly comprehensive, though not totally Revealed Publicly as yet."
Kashin Said a memorandum of understanding was signed Between China and Russia for four Amur submarines in 2012. "Chinese companies will be Subcontractors for this project, Their aim is not expected to share Exceed 30 percent. More specific negotiations will take up this year and may last Until 2014-2015, "he said.
The Contract Could be worth $ 2 trillion, with two of the submarines built in Russia and two in China. This will make China the first to import the submarine in 1650, with India and possibly Venezuela Following follows.
The Amur 1650 is an export version of the Project 677 Lada-class submarine, Kashin said. Compared with the previous Project 877 Paltus-class and 636 Kilo-class projects, the Amur 1650 is a "Radically new submarine with new power plant, new automated command-and-control system, new weapons and new control systems acoustics."
However, Because of this Amount of innovation, the first submarine of the class Many faced problems, Which Have only recently Overcome beens. "Currently, 677 submarines are not fitted with AIP [air-independent propulsion]," Said he, with the first 677 submarines to be fitted with AIP system year next year.
Some indicators in the Russian media Suggested Have Requested China HAS the right to fit icts AIP own design, based on the Stirling engine marine, in the Amurs, Doubts Kashin this purpose. Stirling engines are used in Swedish Gotland-class submarines, built by Kockums.
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